Terry Connelly is the Dean Emeritus of Golden Gate University’s Ageno School of Business.
Each year, I publish my predictions for the 12 months ahead. Check out my questions and answers at the end. What do you think?
- Will Britain have achieved a form of Brexit by year-end?
- No, it will decide to stay in the EU.
- Unclear, as they will still be negotiating.
- How many times will the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 20190?
- More than twice
- Not at all
- Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates at any time during 2019?
- What will be the level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the last trading day of 2019?
- More than 10% higher than year-end 2018
- Between 5% and 10% higher
- Less than 5% higher but not lower
- Lower than it finished 2018.
- Will the United States economy be in a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product) by the end of 2019?
- The price of domestic (West Texas) crude oil at year-end 2019 will be:
- Below $50 per barrel
- $50 or higher but not above $70
- above $70.
- Who of the following will not hold the same office at the end of 2019 as he or she currently holds: (check as many as you like, or none – indicating no changes in office)?
- Jay Powell
- Nancy Pelosi
- Mike Pence
- Donald Trump
- Teresa May
- Kim Jong Un
- Robert Mueller
- Angela Merkel
- Which of the following levels will most closely represent the market interest rate (without exceeding) of the ten-year US Treasury bond on the last trading day of 2019?
- Which of the famous “FANG” or “MAGA” stocks will experience the most appreciation in its closing market price from 12/31/18 to 12/31/19?
- Google (AKA Alphabet)
- Which of the following CEOs will no longer be in that position at year-end 2019 (check all you like, or none ( meaning no change))?
- Mary Barra (GM)
- Tim Cook (Apple)
- Elon Musk (Tesla)
- Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook)
- Larry Culp (GE)
- Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan)
- Michael Corbat (Citigroup)
- Jack Dorsey (Twitter)
- The first commercial space tourist flight will occur in 2019:
- Obamacare will again be upheld by the Federal courts and still be the “law of the land” at year-end 2019.
- Which of the following companies will complete an IPO in 2019 (check as many as you like, or none)?
- Which of the following European economies will be in recession by the end of 2019 (check as many as you like, or none)?
- Great Britain
- Will Russia invade Ukraine in 2019?
- Will President Trump get specific funding from Congress for his border “Wall” in 2019?
- No, but he will use other, possibly military discretionary funds, to begin building it.
- Will the trade war between China and the US (as evidenced by significant and continuing large tariffs on most trading goods) continue unabated through the end of 2019?
- Which countries will have American troops on their ground at the end of 2019 (check all you like or none)?
- Saudi Arabia
- Will there be a second “government shutdown” in the US in 2019?
- Will Congress and the President agree on a major infrastructure spending/investment program in 2019?
- Will President Trump impose a 25% tariff on foreign-made automobiles in 2019?
What statement best describes the effect the “Mueller Report” — in whatever form (and its aftermath) — will have on financial markets in the United States
- A significant rally as Trump himself is essentially exonerated although same of his campaign personnel may face indictment.
- A slow and steady decline in stock values through year-end as Congress ponders impeachment.
- First a sharp drop, then a return to normal trading as there is no impeachment and conviction of President Trump.
- A stock market crash and a bond market rally as Trump is subjected to impeachment and trial in the Senate without a conclusion during 2019.
- A sharp stock market correction and modest bond market rally as the Trump Administration refuses to release to the public or Congress the Mueller findings on national security grounds (although parts of it leak), leading to a Constitutional crisis still in the courts at year end.
4) Between 5 and 105 higher
6) Above $70
7) May, Mueller and Merkel
10) No changes for any
14) Great Britain
16) NO but will use other means
18) First four countries only
BONUS – Last choice
What do you think? Feel free to contact me.
About Terry Connelly
Terry Connelly is an economic expert and Dean Emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University. With more than 30 years experience in investment banking, law and corporate strategy on Wall Street and abroad, Terry analyses the impact of government politics and policies on local, national and international economies, examining the interaction of global financial markets, the U.S. banking industry (and all of its regulatory agencies), the Federal Reserve, domestic employment levels and consumer reactions to the changing economic tides. Terry holds a law degree from NYU School of Law and his professional history includes positions with Ernst & Young Australia, the Queensland University of Technology Graduate School of Business, New York law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore (corporate, securities and litigation practice in New York and London), global chief of staff at Salomon Brothers investment banking firm and Cowen & Company’s investments, where he served as CEO. In conjunction with Golden Gate University President Dan Angel, Terry co-authored Riptide: The New Normal In Higher Education (2011). Riptide deconstructs the changing landscape of higher education in the face of the for-profit debacle, graduation gridlock, and staggering student debt, and asserts a new, sustainable model for progress. Terry is a board member of the Public Religion Research Institute, a Washington, DC think tank and polling organization, and the Cardiac Therapy Foundation in Palo Alto, California. Terry lives in Palo Alto with his wife.