Can you predict what 2018 has in store for business, economics, politics, and sports? Take the Emeritus Dean’s Quiz

terry-connellyAt year’s end, I write the Business Dean’s Quiz about what the new year will bring. What do you think of my answers?



1) Where will the Dow Jones average stand at year end 2018 as compared with year-end 2017:
a) 10% or more higher
b) 10% or more lower
c) within 5% either way
d) less than 1% different
e) between 5% and 10% up
f) between 5% and 10% down

2) Which of the following companies will be acquired:
a) Time Warner
b) Netflix
c) Humana
d) Qualcomm
e) CBS
f) Macy’s

3) President Trump will have the opportunity to choose a nominee for the US Supreme Court before year’s-end.
a) True
b) False

4) Which Trump Administration senior official will not be in the same office at year end 2018 (List as many of these as you like.):
a) Treasury Secretary Mnuchin
b) Attorney General Sessions
c) Secretary of State Tillerson
d) Defense Secretary Mattis
e) Education Secretary DeVos
f) CIA Head Pompeo
g) UN Ambassador Haley
h) Office of Management and Budget Mulvaney
i) None of the above

5) Pick the stock that will appreciate the most in 2018:
a) Ford
b) Bank of America
c) Con Edison
d) Google
e) Apple
f) Alibaba
g) Facebook
h) General Electric

6) Pick the stock that will depreciate the most in 2018 among the following:
a) Netflix
b) AT&T
c) Chevron
d) Goldman Sachs
e) Lockheed Martin
f) Berkshire Hathaway
g) Citigroup
h) United Technologies

7) Bitcoin’s market value at year end 2018 will be:
a) at or below $10,000
b) above $10,000
c) essentially worthless and untradeable

8) The Democrats will recapture the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterms:
a) True
b) False

9) The Republicans will hold the Senate in the 2018 midterms:
a) True
b) False

10) Sports “Comeback of the Year”:
a) Tiger Woods
b) Aaron Rogers
c) San Francisco Giants
d) San Francisco 49ers
e) Washington Redskins
f) UCLA football team
g) Lindsay Vonn
h) Rory McElroy

11) The following will announce they are NOT running for President in 2020 (List as many of these as you like.):
a) Hillary Clinton
b) Donald Trump
c) Bernie Sanders
d) Elizabeth Warren
e) Jerry Brown
f) Ben Sasse
g) Cory Booker
h) Kirsten Gillibrand
i) Bill DiBlasio

12) Which, if any, of those named in Question 11 will announce early that they WILL run for President in 2020.

13) Which, if any, will attack another country pre-emptively in 2018 (List as many of these as you like.):
a) Venezuela
b) Saudi Arabia
c) Israel
d) Pakistan
e) Russia
f) North Korea
g) Turkey
h) USA
i) None of the above.

14) Special Counsel Mueller’s conclusion will be:
a) The Trump campaign was “extremely careless” in its dealings with Russian person, the Trump transition team acted in technical violation of the Logan act, and President Trump attempted to obstruct justice by firing Comey – BUT no “reasonable prosecutor” would seek to indict the President.
b) Trump did nothing wrong; no collusion was proven
c) Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice
d) same as (a) above but all matters should be referred to Congress for any action.

15) Whatever tax change bill passes the Congress and is signed by the President into law, a major unintended consequence will be discovered during the year which will require a fix before the 2018 midterm election:
a) True
b) False

16) The price of oil at year-end 2018 will be higher than the price of oil at year-end 2017:
a) True
b) False

17) The British will fail to successfully conclude “Brexit” arrangement with the European Union before the end of 2018, calling to serious question whether there will be in place by the March 2019 official deadline for an agreement:
a) True
b) False

18) The US Congress will pass and the president will sign significant new legislation regarding the following before the end of 2018, regardless of whether before or after the midterm elections:
a) reinstating “net neutrality”
b) abolishing the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau
c) providing permanent legal status to so-called DACA or “dreamer” immigrants
d) changing Medicare to a form of voucher program for new enrollees
e) repealing the remnants of Obamacare and shifting funds and full responsibility for health insurance regulation entirely to the states
f) killing the Iran nuclear agreement
g) establishing a federal/state/private enterprise partnership for infrastructure construction
i) none of the above

19) The MVP of the 2018 Super Bowl will be:
a) Jared Goff of the Rams
b) Aaron Rogers of the Packers
c) Tom Brady of the Patriots
d) Antonio Brown or Ben Rothlisberger of the Steelers
e) Mark Ingram or Drew Brees of the Saints
f) Russell Wilson of the Seahawks
g) Cam Newton or Christian McCaffrey of the Panthers
h) Case Keenum of the Vikings
i) none of the above

20) American financial firms will begin significantly to relocate their operation from London to:
a) Paris
b) Frankfurt
c) Amsterdam
d) Dublin
e) Luxembourg
f) all of the above
g) none of the above – won’t happen

Answers: 1 c; 2 c and d; 3 b; 4 c and f; 5 a;  6 g; 7 a; 8 a; 9 b; 10 d; 11 a, e and i; 12 b and g; 13 i; 14 a; 15 a; 16 a; 17 a; 18 a; 18 c; 19 d; 20 f.

About Terry Connelly

Terry Connelly is an economic expert and Dean Emeritus of the Ageno School of Business at Golden Gate University. With more than 30 years experience in investment banking, law and corporate strategy on Wall Street and abroad, Terry analyses the impact of government politics and policies on local, national and international economies, examining the interaction of global financial markets, the U.S. banking industry (and all of its regulatory agencies), the Federal Reserve, domestic employment levels and consumer reactions to the changing economic tides. Terry holds a law degree from NYU School of Law and his professional history includes positions with Ernst & Young Australia, the Queensland University of Technology Graduate School of Business, New York law firm Cravath, Swaine & Moore (corporate, securities and litigation practice in New York and London), global chief of staff at Salomon Brothers investment banking firm and Cowen & Company’s investments, where he served as CEO. In conjunction with Golden Gate University President Dan Angel, Terry co-authored Riptide: The New Normal In Higher Education (2011). Riptidedeconstructs the changing landscape of higher education in the face of the for-profit debacle, graduation gridlock, and staggering student debt, and asserts a new, sustainable model for progress. Terry is a board member of the Public Religion Research Institute, a Washington, DC think tank and polling organization, and the Cardiac Therapy Foundation in Palo Alto, California. Terry lives in Palo Alto with his wife.

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